کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5104170 1480750 2017 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
سرمایه گذاری در بازار فلزات: آیا معاملات آتی اثر قیمت و نوسانات قیمت را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهند؟
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات زمین شناسی اقتصادی
چکیده انگلیسی
The emerging financialization of commodity markets over the last decades has led to an intense public and scientific debate about commodity investing and its implications. Although metal commodities are indispensable to industry and the economy, the influence of financialization on metal spot prices and in particular on respective volatility has been insufficiently studied. Therefore, we attempt to contribute to existing literature by examining potential effects of the lead-lag relationship on futures trading activity of commercial and non-commercial market participants and cash prices and volatility for the major metal commodities: copper, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. After analyzing Commitment of Traders (COT) reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over a timeframe from January 1993 to December 2013, bi-directional Granger-causality tests and an EGARCH volatility analysis show that there is hardly any influence of trading activity driving metal spot prices in the long-term, but rather driving volatility to some extent. We find indications of price and volatility influencing effects of trading activity within sub-samples, such as phases of booms and crises. Contrary to public perception, commercial and long positions affect price levels and volatility far more than activities of non-commercial traders. However, for the reverse direction there is strong evidence that commodity prices and volatility drive trading positions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Resources Policy - Volume 53, September 2017, Pages 300-316
نویسندگان
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