کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5450521 | 1513060 | 2017 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The value of day-ahead forecasting for photovoltaics in the Spanish electricity market
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزش پیش بینی روزانه برای فتوولتائیک در بازار برق اسپانیا
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
In this study, we analyze various day-ahead production forecasts for a 1.86 MW photovoltaic plant considering different techniques and sets of inputs. A nRMSE of 22.54% was obtained for a Support Vector Regression model trained by numerical weather predictions (NWP). This model produced the most benefits. An annual forecasting value of 4788⬠with respect to a persistence model was obtained for trading in the Iberian (Spain and Portugal) day-ahead electricity market. Annual value added by the NWP service totaled 2801⬠and room for improvement regarding NWP variables rose to 3877â¬. As a general trend, it was found that smaller errors (RMSE) generated higher incomes. For each 1 kW h improvement in RMSE, the annual value of forecasting increased 22.32â¬. Nevertheless, some models that gave larger errors than others also brought greater benefits. Thus, market conditions must be considered to accurately evaluate model economic performance.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 158, December 2017, Pages 140-146
Journal: Solar Energy - Volume 158, December 2017, Pages 140-146
نویسندگان
J. Antonanzas, D. Pozo-Vázquez, L.A. Fernandez-Jimenez, F.J. Martinez-de-Pison,