Final and B molasses for fuel ethanol production and some market implications

Some concern about biofuels has been expressed because the growing demand for biofuels could cause, among other potential impacts, farming lands to be used for producing biofuel instead of food, thus raising food prices. Such concern is also present when considering the relationship between sugar and fuel ethanol production. The sugar market is characterized by a low growth rate of demand, volatile prices, widespread interventions and, recently, an increasing surplus production. In parallel, an emerging world market for fuel ethanol has expanded by 12% annually due to policy support. Some countries have mandated ethanol/gasoline blends, while others are looking for ways to introduce them or expand the existing market. The aim of this work is to assess the potential, in the short term, for fuel ethanol production by using intermediate molasses in countries that industrialize sugarcane. The following main sugarcane producing countries were taken as example: Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Australia, India, and Thailand. The result of this research shows that those countries could together produce an amount equal to approximately 16.5% of the fuel ethanol produced worldwide in 2015. In addition, four countries could replace more than 10% of their national gasoline consumption with ethanol produced from A molasses. This work, however, suggest producing fuel ethanol by using final molasses and 20% of B molasses. That option would cause a 3% average reduction in sugar production; but, this decline is nonetheless equivalent to the average growth rate of the global sugar surplus in the last three years. Moreover, the suggested scheme showed a favorable opportunity cost in comparison with the exclusive production of sugar. The proposed type of ethanol production could support the development of national ethanol markets in the short term, while more sustainable options (e.g., ethanol from residual lignocellulosic materials) are not available.