Self-efficacy, overconfidence, and the negative effect on subsequent performance: A field study

Self-efficacy has been used to predict the level of performance or usage of IT. The psychological literature has suggested, however, that rather than promoting behavior, it can lead to overconfidence and reduce performance over time. We investigated this claim by studying the relationship between self-efficacy and performance in a field study. Overconfidence was measured metacognitively as the difference between a person's expected performance and his or her actual performance. Using PLS and a sample of 108 students in an systems analysis and design course, we found that for the sample as a whole, self-efficacy was positively and significantly related to performance, and that performance was positively and significantly related to subsequent self-efficacy. When levels of over- and under-confidence were taken into account, however, the relationships changed. In particular, overconfidence leads to a significant negative relationship between self-efficacy and subsequent performance. Implications for user training included the need to use performance feedback in order to allow for a recalibration of self-efficacy towards a more accurate self-assessment of ability.