Population ageing and healthcare demand: The case of Slovenia

- The effects of population ageing on healthcare demand in Slovenia were investigated.
- A model for forecasting healthcare demand was developed.
- Healthcare demand is expected to increase for four major types of healthcare services.
- The forecast increases are significant, especially for hospital services.
- Specific disease groups have a larger effect on healthcare demand.

The aim of this paper is to explore the consequences of demographic ageing on healthcare demand in Slovenia for primary care, secondary care, hospital day-care treatments, and hospitalisations. In the paper, we develop a model for making projections of the total number of treatments using the age-group projection method with the scenario approach. The model allows the number of treatments to be observed with respect to medical services, age groups and main disease groups. The results are presented for the cross-section years 2015, 2025 and 2035. The smallest increase in the number of treatments occurs in primary care, a larger one for secondary care, and the largest for hospital day-care services and hospitalisations (up to 29.9%). The structure of demand will also change. Demand for healthcare services for children and infants will decrease while demand for diseases associated with older age groups will increase, particularly for diseases of the circulatory system, eye and adnexa, and diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs. The results presented in this paper can help improve understanding of similar processes in other countries for total healthcare demand and for changes in the structure of demand. The results show that the healthcare system in Slovenia will face a major additional burden in the next 20 years.