Liver, Pancreas and Biliary TractEvaluation of the red cell distribution width as a biomarker of early mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma

BackgroundThe red cell distribution width is a biomarker of early mortality across various disease states.AimTo verify whether it may refine estimates of survival in hepatocellular carcinoma.MethodsThe red cell distribution width measured at diagnosis was analyzed in relationship to mortality by any cause both in a retrospective training cohort (N = 208), and in an independent prospectively collected validation cohort (N = 106) of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Based on Cox proportional hazards modelling, a prognostic index was validated.ResultsIn the training and the validation cohort, median survival time was respectively 1026 and 868 days in patients with red cell distribution width ≤14.6%, vs. 282 and 340 days in patients with red cell distribution width >14.6%; the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.43 (95% CI: 0.31-0.60), p < 0.0001 and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.17-0.47), p < 0.0001. At multivariate analysis, the red cell distribution width remained an independent predictor of survival (p < 0.001) in a Cox model including other widely accepted prognostic factors. Applying to the validation dataset the prognostic index derived from the training dataset, the ability of the model to discriminate the survival probabilities of patients was confirmed (Harrell's C = 0.769).ConclusionsThe red cell distribution width is a novel, reproducible, prospectively validated predictor of survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.