Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China

► Liuxihe Reservoir was experienced changes of climate and hydrological conditions. ► We incorporate these changes in model to quantify their effects on thermal regime. ► Warming trends strengthen water stability, large discharge increases mixing. ► End of stratification is more sensitive to hydrological conditions than the onset. ► Thermal features are more variable in low level periods.