Hybrid evaporator model: Analysis under uncertainty by means of Monte Carlo method

Error propagation from Monte Carlo method is applied to the heat transfer rate (Q) predicted by a hybrid model. This heat transfer rate permitted us to evaluate an evaporator used in a vapor compression refrigeration system. A hybrid model reported in literature was used in order to obtain error propagation in heat transfer rate prediction. The hybrid model used temperatures, mass flow rates and enthalpies from the evaporator. A correlation for the calculation of relative standard deviation (%RSD) of Q as a function of experimental Q (Qexp) and %RSDinstrument was obtained. The effect of each operation variable over standard deviation of the heat transfer rate is presented. Greater efforts in calibration and high-precision equipment in evaporator pressure are recommended in order to obtain meaningful heat transfer rate hybrid prediction with relatively small errors of less than 2.85%.

► Monte Carlo method is applied to the heat transfer rate predicted by a hybrid model.
► Different levels of errors were considered to obtain standard deviation estimates of heat transfer rate.
► A new correlation for error propagation of heat transfer rate is presented.