Economic performance optimization of an absorption cooling system under uncertainty

Many of the strategies devised so far to address the optimization of energy systems are deterministic approaches that rely on estimated data. However, in real world applications there are many sources of uncertainty that introduce variability into the decision-making problem. Within this general context, we propose a novel approach to address the design of absorption cooling systems under uncertainty in the energy cost. As opposed to other approaches that optimize the expected performance of the system as a single objective, in our method the design task is formulated as a stochastic bi-criteria non-linear optimization problem that simultaneously accounts for the minimization of the expected total cost and the financial risk associated with the investment. The latter criterion is measured by the downside risk, which avoids the need to define binary variables thus improving the computational performance of the model. The capabilities of the proposed modeling framework and solution strategy are illustrated in a case study problem that addresses the design of a typical absorption cooling system. Numerical results demonstrate that the method presented allows to manage the risk level effectively by varying the area of the heat exchangers of the absorption cycle. Specifically, our strategy allows identifying the optimal values of the operating and design variables of the cycle that make it less sensitive to fluctuations in the energy price, thus improving its robustness in the face of uncertainty.