Forecasting methods for balancing energy market in Poland

In the paper the scope of research carried out for the Transmission System Operator of the Polish Power System PSE-Operator S.A. in order to make up forecasting tools supporting creation of coordination plans is described. The Transmission System Operator is obliged legally to make up such plans for traffic and maintenance of the transmission grid. The article describes in detail forecasting models examined for different time horizons, for which the coordination plans are made up. These models were designed for preparing the daily, monthly and annual coordination plans by the PSE-Operator S.A. and they are currently in the implementation phase. The model based on fuzzy estimators supporting daily coordination plans, standard load curve model supporting monthly coordination plans and hybrid model supporting annual coordination plans are presented. The models were verified using real data examples.