Population, affluence, and environmental impact across development: Evidence from panel cointegration modeling

► Elasticities varied, in nonlinear fashion, accordingly to development process. ► U-shaped, inverted U-shaped, and monotonic patterns were revealed, depending on variables in question. ► Affluence and urban population elasticities imply substantial growth in emissions from transport for all countries. ► Increasing electrification will be an important driver of residential electricity use in poor and middle countries. ► Continued rural to urban migration in poor countries will be an important driver of residential electricity use.