Effects of Medicare coverage for the chronically ill on health insurance, utilization, and mortality: Evidence from coverage expansions affecting people with end-stage renal disease

I study the effect of the 1973 expansions of Medicare coverage among individuals with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on insurance coverage, health care utilization, and mortality. I find that the expansions increased insurance coverage by between 22 and 30 percentage points, in models that include trends in age, with the increase explained by Medicare coverage, and increased physician visits by 25-35 percent. These expansions also decreased mortality due to kidney disease in the under 65 population by between 0.5 and 1.0 deaths per 100,000. Lastly, I provide evidence for two mechanisms that affected mortality: an increase in access to and use of treatment, which may be due to changes in insurance coverage; and an increase in entry of dialysis clinics and transplant programs.