Investment in hydrogen tri-generation for wastewater treatment plants under uncertainties

In this article, we present a compound real option model for investment in hydrogen tri-generation and onsite hydrogen dispensing systems for a wastewater treatment plant under price and market uncertainties. The ultimate objective is to determine optimal timing and investment thresholds to exercise initial and subsequent options such that the total savings are maximized. Initial option includes investment in a 1.4 (MW) Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC) fed by mixture of waste biogas from anaerobic digestion and natural gas, along with auxiliary equipment. Produced hydrogen in MCFC via internal reforming, is recovered from the exhaust gas stream using Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) purification technology. Therefore the expansion option includes investment in hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing (CSD) systems which creates additional revenue by selling hydrogen onsite in retail price. This work extends current state of investment modeling within the context of hydrogen tri-generation by considering: (i) Modular investment plan for hydrogen tri-generation and dispensing systems, (ii) Multiple sources of uncertainties along with more realistic probability distributions, (iii) Optimal operation of hydrogen tri-generation is considered, which results in realistic saving estimation.