Nuclear refugees after large radioactive releases

• Number of refugees is a good indicator of the severity of radiological consequences.
• It is a better measure of the long-term consequences than the number of fatalities.
• A representative meteorological sample should be sufficiently large.
• The number of refugees highly depends on the release site in a country like France.

However improbable, large radioactive releases from a nuclear power plant would entail major consequences for the surrounding population. In Fukushima, 80,000 people had to evacuate the most contaminated areas around the NPP for a prolonged period of time. These people have been called “nuclear refugees”.The paper first argues that the number of nuclear refugees is a better measure of the severity of radiological consequences than the number of fatalities, although the latter is widely used to assess other catastrophic events such as earthquakes or tsunami. It is a valuable partial indicator in the context of comprehensive studies of overall consequences.Section 2 makes a clear distinction between long-term relocation and emergency evacuation and proposes a method to estimate the number of refugees.Section 3 examines the distribution of nuclear refugees with respect to weather and release site. The distribution is asymmetric and fat-tailed: unfavorable weather can lead to the contamination of large areas of land; large cities have in turn a higher probability of being contaminated.