Estimation of repairable system availability within fixed time horizon

The paper presents an efficient approach to estimating the availability of a repairable system observed within a fixed time horizon, which is regarded as a random variable over range [0,1][0,1]. A Beta distribution based approximation of this characteristic is proposed. The presented results are derived from Monte Carlo simulation and statistical analysis of the simulation results. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the practical impact of this approach.