کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
81355 158311 2016 12 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید دانلود کنید
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله
Biophysical and lightning characteristics drive lightning-induced fire occurrence in the central plateau of the Iberian Peninsula
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ویژگی های بیوفیزیکی و رعد و برق درایو به وقوع آتش رعد و برق ناشی از در فلات مرکزی از شبه جزیره ایبری
کلمات کلیدی
آتش سوزی رعد و برق . رگرسیون لجستیک؛ جنگل های تصادفی؛ وقوع خطر آتش سوزی؛ شبه جزیره ایبری
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی


• Lightning-induced fire occurrence was modelled for the central plateau of Spain.
• Logistic regression and random forest techniques were used for the analysis.
• Coniferous woodlands and agricultural crops were the most influential variables.
• Random forest performed slightly better in terms of misclassified predictions.
• Vegetation was highlighted as the key factor in lightning fire risk.

Lightning-induced fire occurrence was assessed for the central plateau of the Iberian Peninsula based on topography, vegetation, meteorology and lightning characteristics. Two different methods were used for analysis purposes: logistic regression (a traditional parametric model) and random forest (a non-parametric alternative based on an ensemble of classification and regression trees). Data on the presence/absence of at least one lightning-induced forest fire in a 4 × 4 km grid cell in the period 2000–2010 were used as the dependent variable for model building, whereas data for the same period at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km was used for model validation.Results show that five of the seven independent variables selected as important for each methodology were common to both methods. The probability of a landscape being affected by lightning-induced fire decreased with increasing altitude and the percentage of agricultural crops, whereas it increased with the percentages of coniferous and mixed woodlands and the mean peak current of negative flashes. The percentages of coniferous woodlands and agricultural crops in a landscape were the most influential variables, highlighting vegetation type as the principal factor to consider when rating lightning-induced fire risk.The area under the receiver operator characteristics curves calculated using the construction and validation datasets indicated similar and acceptable discrimination capacities for both methodologies. The spatial analysis of misclassified predictions indicated slightly better performance of the random forest model, highlighting that this method has potential for the assessment of lightning-induced fire occurrence.The insights obtained can be useful for spatially explicit assessment of lightning-induced fire risk, planning and coordinating regional efforts to identify areas at greatest risk and designing long-term wildfire management strategies.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology - Volume 225, 15 September 2016, Pages 36–47
نویسندگان
, , , ,