Factors Predicting Graft-versus-Host Disease-Free, Relapse-Free Survival after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: Multivariable Analysis from a Single Center

The ideal outcome of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is based on survival that is free of morbidity. The most common causes of treatment failure and morbidity after HCT are relapse, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), and nonrelapse death. A composite endpoint that measures survival free of clinically significant negative events may be a useful way to determine the success of allo-HCT. We assessed GVHD and relapse-free survival (GRFS) where the events were acute GVHD grades III to IV, chronic GVHD requiring immunosuppression, relapse, or death in 531 consecutive adult patients who received an allo-HCT between 2006 and 2014 at our center. Median follow-up of living patients was 46 months (range, 12 to 123). HLA matched related donor (MRD, n = 198, 37%), matched unrelated donor (MUD, n = 205, 39%), and haploidentical donor with post-transplant cyclophosphamide (HID, n = 128, 24%) were used. Thirty-six percent of patients had a high/very-high Dana Farber disease risk index (DRI). Estimated rates of GRFS at 1 and 2 years after MRD, MUD, and HID transplantations were 34% and 26%, 26% and 17%, and 33% and 31%, respectively, with MRD recipients having a better GRFS than MUD (P < .05). On multivariable analysis, peripheral blood stem cell source (HR, 1.34; P = .04), MUD (HR, 1.41; P = .003), and high/very high DRI (HR, 1.66; P = .001) were all associated with a worse GFRS post-HCT. These data suggest that GRFS can be predicted by patient disease risk, stem cell source, and donor type. Importantly, MUDs produce inferior GRFS to MRDs, whereas HIDs do not.