Correlations between the evolution of contradictions and the law of identity increase

TRIZ literature largely claims the efficiency of Altshuller's Laws of Engineering System Evolution (LESE) as a means for producing technology forecasts. Besides, all the instruments and the procedures proposed so far suffer from poor repeatability, thus limiting the adoption of TRIZ instruments as reliable means for the analysis of emerging technologies and their potential impact. In a previous work [1,2] the authors have presented their modelling approach based on a combination of well known TRIZ techniques and traditional engineering design reference models. The outcome is a Network of Evolutionary Trends which supports decision making by positioning alternative technologies and technical solutions according to the LESE. The choice of the favourite strategic direction is still assigned to the beneficiaries of the forecast, since decisions will be taken also based on their mission and values. Besides, it is necessary providing further means of judgement to the decision makers. According to this purpose, it is useful to assess the maturity level of the analyzed technologies. The present work is a study about the correlations existing between the evolution of contradictions and the Law of Ideality increase, as a means to estimate the stage of development of a Technical System. The paper details the method proposed to make a systematic comparison of the contradictions related to each technology. The approach is clarified by means of a case study related to the production of tablets in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector.