Neighbourhood, school and family determinants of children's aspirations in primary school

• We modelled the contextual determinants of aspirations in children aged 7 years.
• We examined this in a large-scale longitudinal sample of children in England.
• Neighbourhood and school contexts were not associated with aspirations.
• Family socio-economic status was related to white boys' aspirations.

Aspirations can be important for young children as well as adolescents. However, there is little research on the determinants of aspirations in young children. We carried out this study to investigate the early contextual (neighbourhood, school and family) determinants of occupational aspirations in primary school children. Our sample comprised children from the Millennium Cohort Study who lived in England in the beginning of our study period (n = 10,086; 5,126 boys). Occupational aspirations were measured at age 7 years, while their contextual determinants were measured in the previous data sweeps, at ages 3 and 5 years. We fitted structural equation models to test the role of family and neighbourhood socio-economic status (SES) and child ethnicity in predicting aspirations both directly and via their associations with parental involvement, household chaos, school-level achievement and child cognitive ability. We found that the only significant determinants of aspirations at age 7 years were family SES and ethnicity, and only in boys. Family SES and ethnicity were also related to parental involvement, household chaos, cognitive ability and school-level achievement, but none of these factors predicted aspirations. Supplementary analysis showed that family SES was a particularly powerful determinant of the aspirations of white compared to non-white boys.