کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8912330 | 1639333 | 2018 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling climate change impact: A case of bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea)
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
ژئوشیمی و پترولوژی
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چکیده انگلیسی
Climate change projections for southern Africa indicate low and erratic rainfall as well as increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes such as drought. The 2015/16 drought devastated large parts of southern Africa and highlighted the need for drought tolerant crops. Bambara groundnut is an African indigenous crop, commonly cultivated in southern Africa, with a higher potential for drought tolerance compared to other staple legumes. AquaCrop model was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yield, water use (ET) and water productivity (WP) of bambara groundnut using climate change data representative of the past (1961-1991), present (1995-2025), mid-century (2030-2060) and late century (2065-2095) obtained from five global circulation models (GCMs). The carbon dioxide (CO2) file selected was for the A2 scenario. The model was run at a sub-catchment level. Model simulations showed that yield and WP of bambara groundnut will increase over time. The mean values of yield at the different time scales across the GCMs showed that yield of bambara groundnut increased by â¼9% from the past to the present, will increase by â¼15% from the present to mid-century and will increase by 6% from mid-to late-century. The simulated results of ET showed seasonal ranges of 703-796â¯mm. Of this, 45% was lost to soil evaporation, suggesting the need for developing bambara groundnut varieties with faster establishment and high canopy cover. Model simulations showed an increase in WP by â¼13% from the past to present and â¼15% from the present to mid-century and â¼11% from mid-century to late century. While the results of these simulations are preliminary, they confirm the view that bambara groundnut is a potential future crop suitable for cultivation in marginal agricultural production areas. Future research should focus on crop improvement to improve current yield of bambara groundnut.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C - Volume 105, June 2018, Pages 25-31
Journal: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C - Volume 105, June 2018, Pages 25-31
نویسندگان
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Tendai Polite Chibarabada, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo, Albert Thembinkosi Modi,