Electricity portfolio innovation for energy security: The case of carbon constrained China

• Electricity portfolio innovation is required to address China's energy security.
• Ambitious climate targets are attainable with innovative fuel mix patterns.
• Diversity of energy supply will increase due to renewable energy sources.
• Energy import dependency will increase due to the indigenous coal production cap.
• Energy supply security and climate change mitigation are not conflicting targets.

China's energy sector is under pressure to achieve secure and affordable supply and a clear decarbonisation path. We examine the longitudinal trajectory of the Chinese electricity supply security and model the near future supply security based on the 12th 5 Year Plan. Our approach combines the Shannon–Wiener, Herfindahl–Hirschman and electricity import dependence indices for supply security appraisal. We find that electricity portfolio innovation allows China to provide secure energy supply despite increasing import dependence. It is argued that long-term aggressive deployment of renewable energy will unblock China's coal-biased technological lock-in and increase supply security in all fronts. However, reduced supply diversity in China during the 1990s will not recover until after 2020s due to the long-term coal lock-in that can threaten to hold China back from realising its full potential.