Modelling of the carbon sequestration and its prediction under climate change

The aim of the presented study is to quantify the total carbon stock of habitats in addition the estimation of aboveground and belowground biomass, necromass, and soil organic carbon. Prediction of carbon storage under climate change is based on future land-use changes, identification of new land-use distribution, and evaluation of changes in human impacts on biomass production and carbon storage. Widely used InVEST model was applied to determine the existing carbon stocks and the amount of carbon captured over time. Changes in the carbon storage were calculated from aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, necromass, and soil organic carbon pools. The original model was modified to vector space to better identify land heterogeneity. The values of the four carbon pools for individual land-use categories were derived from literature and experimental investigation. Land Change Modeller was then used to model future land use by applying business-as-usual scenario on data derived from 1990, 2000, 2006, and 2012 Corine Land Cover data. In this contribution, land cover predictions are calculated using three CORDEX climate models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Results describe current carbon stock by basic carbon pools and prediction of the total amount of carbon stored in four reservoirs in three time period. Results show that the difference in predictions between specific scenarios in each period is increasing and in all predictions, roughly the same proportional carbon ratio is maintained between the individual stocks.