Is the Monocyte Chemotactic Protein-1 −2518 G Allele a Risk Factor for Severe Acute Pancreatitis?

Background & Aims: Acute pancreatitis (AP) reflects the intensity of the inflammatory response and is divided into mild AP (MAP) or severe AP (SAP). Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) gene expression is altered by an A/G polymorphism (−2518), with the G allele increasing MCP-1 production. Our aim was to determine whether the MCP-1 −2518 A/G polymorphism affects the severity of AP. Methods: Seventy-seven consecutive patients and 116 controls were evaluated. The A/G genotype was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction amplification, restriction fragment length polymorphism, and DNA sequencing. MCP-1 serum levels were quantified using a fluorescence bead-based immunoassay. Results: Sixty-three of 77 patients had MAP (82%) and 14 of 77 had SAP (18%). Patients with SAP had a significantly greater proportion of the G allele (12 of 14; 86%) than did control subjects (50 of 116; 43%) (odds ratio [OR], 7.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-37, P < .003) or MAP patients (29 of 63; 46%) (OR, 7.0; 95% CI, 1.5-34; P < .007). Patients with pancreatitis and AA genotype had a low risk for SAP (OR, .13; 95% CI, .01-.61; P < .003). As predicted by the genotype, the serum MCP-1 levels were significantly higher in the SAP patients when compared with the MAP patients (P = .002) and they also predicted death. Conclusions: MCP-1 −2518 G allele is a risk factor for severe AP. MCP-1 serum levels, measured early in the course of AP, appear to be an accurate predictor of severity of acute pancreatitis and death.