The Dynamism of Mexican Exports: Lost in (Chinese) Translation?

SummaryThis paper analyzes the extent to which Mexican exports have penetrated US markets in recent years, and juxtaposes such an analysis with the performance of China. We find that Mexico’s main non-oil exports are losing dynamism, and their relative share in the US market is either declining or growing slower than China’s. This trend is a new one, and begins after China’s entry into the WTO. A number of factors could explain these findings. These include: (i) the real appreciation of the real exchange rate of the peso relative to the US dollar combined with the trend toward undervaluation of the Chinese currency, (ii) the decline of public investment in Mexico, especially in infrastructure, (iii) limited access to bank credit in Mexico, and (iv) the absence of government policy in Mexico to help spur technological innovation and to strengthening its domestic backward and forward linkages.