The sustainability challenge of meeting carbon dioxide targets in Europe by 2020

Following the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union obligated itself to lower its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 20% below their 1990 level, by the year 2020. Carbon dioxide is the major GHG. To fulfil this obligation, the nations must meet the sustainability challenge of countering rising population plus affluence with the dematerialization of less energy per GDP plus the decarbonization of less carbon per energy. To test the feasibility of meeting the challenge, we analysed carbon dioxide emission during 1993-2004. Although emissions in the entire Union grew only by an average of 0.31% per year, emissions and their drivers varied markedly among the 27 member states. Dematerialization and decarbonization did occur, but not enough to offset the slight population growth plus rapidly increasing affluence. To fulfil its obligation in the next 12 years, the EU27 would have to counter its increasing population and affluence by a combined dematerialization and decarbonization 1.9-2.6 times faster than during 1993-2004. Hence, fulfilling its obligation by addressing fossil carbon emissions alone is very unlikely.