کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
996330 936294 2009 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector
چکیده انگلیسی

The grey forecasting model, GM(1,1) was adopted in this study to capture the development trends of the number of motor vehicles, vehicular energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Taiwan during 2007–2025. In addition, the simulation of different economic development scenarios were explored by modifying the value of the development coefficient, a, in the grey forecasting model to reflect the influence of economic growth and to be a helpful reference for realizing traffic CO2 reduction potential and setting CO2 mitigation strategies for Taiwan. Results showed that the vehicle fleet, energy demand and CO2 emitted by the road transportation system continued to rise at the annual growth rates of 3.64%, 3.25% and 3.23% over the next 18 years. Besides, the simulation of different economic development scenarios revealed that the lower and upper bound values of allowable vehicles in 2025 are 30.2 and 36.3 million vehicles, respectively, with the traffic fuel consumption lies between 25.8 million kiloliters to 31.0 million kiloliters. The corresponding emission of CO2 will be between 61.1 and 73.4 million metric tons in the low- and high-scenario profiles.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 37, Issue 8, August 2009, Pages 2952–2961
نویسندگان
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