Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy

The objective of this paper is to study the oil prices–macroeconomy relationship by the analysis of the role of subsidy policy. The vector autoregression (VAR) method was employed to analyze the data over the period 1993 Q1 2007 Q3. The results of the model using both linear and non-linear specifications indicate that there is no direct impact of oil price shock on the economic activity. The shock of oil prices affects economic activity indirectly. The most significant channel by which the effects of the shock are transmitted is the government's spending.