کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
11015699 | 1782157 | 2018 | 31 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A simple stochastic method for modelling the uncertainty of photovoltaic power production based on measured data
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک روش تصادفی ساده برای مدل سازی عدم قطعیت تولید برق فتوولتائیک بر اساس داده های اندازه گیری شده
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
منحنی انعطاف پذیر، تولید برق فتوولتائیک، تابع چگالی احتمال، محدوده اشباع، عدم قطعیت،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper describes statistical quantification tools for predicting photovoltaic (PV) production considering uncertainty in PV production at same irradiation levels and PV panel temperatures. When analysing measured data, it is observed that there are different PV power production levels for the same irradiation levels and panel temperatures. These PV power spread out can be caused by different causes, such as dust deposition over the panel, non-ideal working of maximal power point tracking devices, device efficiencies' dependence on power, different temperatures over the PV panel, and others. Due to the stochastic character of these occurrences, they can be challenging when considered in the deterministic mathematical models usually used for PV power prediction. The probabilistic method for PV power production is proposed based on the probability density function with respect to the solar irradiation and the panel temperature. The simulation results are compared among the different models based on the probability density function with respect to the solar irradiation and panel temperature. The best overlapping between measured and calculated PV power production gives the proposed stochastic models dependent only on irradiance. The proposed stochastic model gives a PV energy prediction on a yearly basis with an error of less than 1%.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 165, Part B, 15 December 2018, Pages 246-256
Journal: Energy - Volume 165, Part B, 15 December 2018, Pages 246-256
نویسندگان
M. BarukÄiÄ, Ž. HederiÄ, M. HadžiselimoviÄ, S. Seme,