کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
11025055 1701034 2019 20 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A statistical method based on the ensemble probability density function for the prediction of “Wind Days”
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک روش آماری مبتنی بر تابع چگالی احتمالی برای پیش بینی روز باد؟
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
To reduce the systematic error, we test different thresholds and numbers of consecutive hours when the definition of WD is applied to model outputs. All the models show remarkably better performances after these parameters are changed. In particular, our method shows the best performance, with an accuracy of 94%. The analysis on test (leave-one-out strategy in 2016) and validation datasets (66 cases in 2017) confirms the previous outcomes. We test our procedures considering the forecast time intervals of 49-72 and 25-48 h, where similar performances are found. In conclusion, our analysis show that the proposed method presents better performances compared to the traditional approaches for different statistical performance indicators.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Atmospheric Research - Volume 216, 1 February 2019, Pages 106-116
نویسندگان
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