System dynamics modelling of an integrated pig production supply chain

• System dynamics model to simulate production of pig breeding and fattening units.
• Herd-specific data and important factors for each breeding level were incorporated.
• Scenario analysis was used to explore the mechanisms and managerial implications.
• Model enables effects on fattening units of breeding disruptions to be visualised.

The supply chain for pigs is a long chain that is not resilient to environmental changes. The most vulnerable point in the chain occurs at the pig production level, which consists of breeding units, great grandparents, grandparents, parents and fattening units. Similar to other agricultural chains, the pig chain is susceptible to disruptions, such as disease outbreaks. The reaction to any disruptions in supply or demand can take several months or even years. A manager might be unable to anticipate changes in the production units and, thus, be unable to effectively manage the chain. In this study, we develop a system dynamics model as a tool for managers to visualise the movement of the entire production chain. This tool enables the integration of important factors at each breeding level that will affect the number of fattening pigs. Scenarios were applied to explore the mechanism of the model, and case studies were developed to represent an integrated pig company.