Channels of social influence on the realization of short-term fertility intentions in Germany

This paper studies the short-term fertility intentions of women and men and their subsequent behavior. Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, the intention-behavior link is analyzed using the first three waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam). The following research questions are addressed: To what extent do individuals realize their stated positive or negative fertility intentions over a period of two years, and what are the most important determinants that inhibit or enable the realization of short-term fertility intentions? Although women and men with a strong desire for a child, in particular parents, were most likely to have had a(nother) child, negative childbearing intentions were even more predictive. Social pressure exerted by parents or by friends appears to have had a stronger effect on the formation than on the realization of fertility intentions, while, surprisingly, expected social support did not have any noticeable effect. In addition, being in a stable relationship was by far the most important determinant of whether individuals had realized their positive fertility intentions.