کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4428323 1619739 2016 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia)
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر تقاضای گردشگری: مطالعه مقایسه از ساردینیا (ایتالیا) و کپ بن (تونس)
کلمات کلیدی
اثرات تغییرات آب و هوا. جهانگردی؛ تجزیه و تحلیل رگرسیون؛ ارزش آب و هوا در معرض خطر؛ ساردینیا؛ کپ بن
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم محیط زیست شیمی زیست محیطی
چکیده انگلیسی


• We model climate change impacts on tourism demand in Sardinia and Cap Bon.
• Climatic conditions for beach tourism are expected to improve in shoulder seasons.
• Increased heat stress may cause tourism demand to decline in summer peak season.
• Annual net impacts on tourism demand are expected to be (slightly) positive.
• Increasing water scarcity may raise water costs and decrease tourism profits.

Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Science of The Total Environment - Volume 543, Part B, 1 February 2016, Pages 1039–1053
نویسندگان
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