Predicting the frequency of occurrence of visible water vapour plumes at proposed industrial sites

Although they may have no direct health impacts, visible water vapour plumes can be of concern to the local population in the vicinity of major industrial plant developments. In this paper, prediction of the occurrence of visible plumes at proposed industrial sites is assessed using the case study of a planned major cement plant in New Zealand. The aim of the investigation was to use a simple but robust approach to estimate the frequency of occurrence of visible water vapour plumes emitted by a proposed plant, as well as their likely dimensions. Input data consisted of information relating to the raw materials used in the production process, as well as stack design parameters. The atmospheric mesoscale model TAPM (The Air Pollution Model) was run for the whole of 2007 to predict ambient conditions in the vicinity of the site. A simple model was then applied to predict visible water vapour plume development under a range of emission rates for the whole year, as well as by season. Predictions were provided for the whole year, allowing for the fact that visible plumes would not be a problem at night and during rain. Model results showed that with three different emission rates (design, intermediate and worst-case) the occurrence of visible plumes at the proposed stack site is likely to be infrequent (less than 0.1% of hours per annum at 20 m from the stack under design conditions). When they do occur, the plumes are expected to be relatively small (a few tens of metres in length/diameter). Visible plume occurrence in winter is predicted to increase to almost 0.2% of the time under the design emission rate of 8.6 kg s−1. The main effect is expected to be on visible plume development within 50 m of the stack, while further away from the stack any visible plume development is expected to be negligible. The sensitivity of visible plume development to varying stack water discharge rates is investigated, along with the specific meteorological conditions under which visible plumes are predicted to develop.

Research highlights
► New integrated approach predicts occurrence of visible water vapour plumes.
► TAPM used to predict 3-D ambient atmospheric conditions for visible plume predictions.
► Occurrence of visible plumes predicted for whole of 2007 at proposed industrial site.
► Visible plume occurrence negligible (<0.1% of hours) under design operating conditions.
► Seasonal/diurnal variation in visible plumes occurs under moderate to extreme conditions.