Contributions of wind and river effects on DO concentration in Tokyo Bay

This paper proposes a method of evaluating the occurrence of hypoxia or anoxia in bottom water of Tokyo Bay, which is typical of enclosed bays in Japan. In Tokyo Bay, the exchange of seawater with the ocean has previously been found to be dominantly controlled by estuarine circulation. Thus, one would expect the concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the bay head to be influenced mainly by estuarine circulation, which changes according to wind strength and river discharges. We investigated the effects of wind and river discharge on DO concentration around the bay head using a three-dimensional ecological model. To evaluate the occurrence of hypoxic or anoxic water, we developed a conceptual DO model, which was verified through the good agreement with the results from a three-dimensional ecological model. We conclude that the conceptual DO model has good potential for evaluating the factors leading to hypoxic or anoxic water around the bay head. Modeling suggested that, on average, wind effects were the dominant factor in the variation of bottom DO concentrations. However, we found that the contribution of extreme events, such as floods and strong winds exceeding 10 m s−1, was 50% or more. This suggests that extreme events play an important role in controlling the variation in DO concentration at the bottom of Tokyo Bay.