Uncertainty assessment of contaminant plume length estimates in heterogeneous aquifers

The Virtual Aquifer approach is used in this study to assess the uncertainty involved in the estimation of contaminant plume lengths in heterogeneous aquifers. Contaminant plumes in heterogeneous two-dimensional conductivity fields and subject to first order and Michaelis–Menten (MM) degradation kinetics are investigated by the center line method. First order degradation rates and plume lengths are estimated from point information obtained along the plume center line. Results from a Monte-Carlo investigation show that the estimated rate constant is highly uncertain and biased towards overly high values. Uncertainty and bias amplify with increasing heterogeneity up to maximum values of one order of magnitude. Calculated plume lengths reflect this uncertainty and bias. On average, plume lengths are estimated to about 50% of the true plume length. When plumes subject to MM degradation kinetics are investigated by using a first order rate law, an additional error is introduced and uncertainty as well as bias increase, causing plume length estimates to be less than 40% of the true length. For plumes with MM degradation kinetics, therefore, a regression approach is used which allows the determination of the MM parameters from center line data. Rate parameters are overestimated by a factor of two on average, while plume length estimates are about 80% of the true length. Plume lengths calculated using the MM parameters are thus closer to the correct length, as compared to the first order approximation. This approach is therefore recommended if field data collected along the center line of a plume give evidence of MM kinetics.