Intrinsic and forced interannual variability of the Gulf of Alaska mesoscale circulation

In the western side of the GOA basin, interannual eddy variability located south of the Alaskan Stream is not correlated with large scale forcing and appears to be intrinsic. A comparison of the three model ensembles forced by NCEP winds and a multi-century-long integration forced only with the seasonal cycle, shows that the internal variability alone explains most of the eddy variance. The asymmetry between the eddy forced regime in the eastern basin, and the intrinsic regime in the western basin, has important implications for predicting the GOA response to climate change. If future climate change results in stronger wintertime winds and increased downwelling in the eastern basin, then increased mesoscale activity (perhaps more or larger eddies) might occur in this region. Conversely, the changes in the western basin are not predictable based on environmental forcing. Eastern eddies transport important biogeochemical quantities such as iron, oxygen and chlorophyll-a into the gyre interior, therefore having potential upscale effects on the GOA high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll region.