Uncertainty-based analysis on water quality response to water diversions for Lake Chenghai: A multiple-pattern inverse modeling approach

• Novel multiple-pattern inverse modeling was proposed to handle data deficiencies.
• Possible lake response was described using 27 representative load-parameter patterns.
• Uncertainty was efficiently incorporated as possibilities in quantitative evaluation.
• Water diversion were unlikely to restore targeted water quality in Lake Chenghai.

SummaryWhile water diversion and dilution are often proposed and implemented for lake eutrophication management, their effectiveness and efficiency in achieving water quality goals is often questionable. Although water quality modeling (WQM) has been applied to quantify lake responses to water diversion and dilution in practice, it is necessary to improve the existing analysis approaches with an uncertainty-based decision-support framework to address the situation of severe data limitation that exists in many real-world cases. This study implemented an enhanced multiple-pattern inverse water quality modeling (MPIWQM) approach in a water diversion study for a terminal plateau lake in southwestern China to address the difficulty of developing robust water-diversion decision support under data limitation and model uncertainty. A two-dimensional, longitudinal and vertical hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed to simulate water circulation and nutrient fate and transport in the lake. To overcome a severe limitation of data, this study employed a multiple-pattern load-parameter estimation (MPLE) method that couples the numerical model with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and a cluster algorithm to construct an uncertainty-based decision support system. Execution of the MPLE approach resulted in 27 load-parameter patterns for the case study to represent all possible combinations of loading-parameter patterns conditioned on the available water quality data in the lake. The uncertainty-based decision-support framework was then applied to evaluate three realistic water diversion scenarios proposed by local management authorities, and the system was able to predict a range of possibilities given a specific water diversion condition. The scenario analysis results showed that (a) within the range of uncertainties represented by the 27 load-parameter patterns, the model consistently predict that the water diversions would unlikely cause significant water quality improvement in the lake; (b) the water quality response to water diversion demonstrates clear spatial variability, temporal variability, and the effect is in general cumulative over time; (c) different water quality constituents respond to the diversions differently, where the chemical oxygen demand (COD) demonstrates the strongest response, while the total phosphorus (TP) the weakest; and (d) none of the proposed water diversion scenarios is able to reverse, or significantly mitigate the water quality deterioration trend in the lake.

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