The significance of spatial rainfall representation for flood runoff estimation: A numerical evaluation based on the Lee catchment, UK

SummaryIn the context of flood management, this paper investigates the relationship between spatial rainfall and runoff production, based on 15 years of radar data, 16 raingauges and 12 flow stations from the 1400 km2 Lee catchment, UK. Event-based, semi-distributed rainfall–runoff modelling is undertaken. Alternative rainfall estimators (radar data and raingauge networks of various density) are considered and their effects on simulated runoff evaluated as a function of rainfall type, catchment type and catchment scale. An index of spatial variability is defined, based on the difference between the reference rainfall (defined by the full raingauge network) and alternative rainfall estimators. A modified Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency criterion measures the performance of the simulated runoff with respect to reference simulated runoff. Results show a complex picture. The dominant effect is the spatial variability of the rainfall. No clear pattern emerges as a function of catchment scale, or response time, except that the impact of spatial variability is damped at the whole catchment scale. The sensitivity to spatial rainfall is enhanced on urbanised catchments.