Crop production variability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation

After broadly characterizing ENSO-induced production anomalies, we demonstrate that they are not static in time. Increasing crop harvesting frequency has affected the correlated risks posed by ENSO. We use a soil water balance to show that in Brazil changing to a safrinha cropping cycle increases both the mean water stress and the ENSO-induced soil water content anomalies during flowering in both the maize and soybean seasons, which is a result of increasing evaporative demand during times of lower precipitation and moving the flowering seasons into months with strong ENSO teleconnections. Increasing crop harvesting frequency in Brazil has therefore increased ENSO-induced production variability of soybeans and maize.