کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
571884 877326 2016 10 صفحه PDF ندارد دانلود کنید
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله
Road accidents and business cycles in Spain ☆
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تصادفات جاده ای و سیکل های تجاری در اسپانیا
کلمات کلیدی
تصادفات جاده ای؛ سیستم نقطه پنالتی؛ چرخه کسب و کار؛ ایمنی فعال؛ ایمنی منفعل؛ هم انباشتگی؛ مدل های لگ خودرگرسیو توزیعی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی شیمی بهداشت و امنیت شیمی
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Accident Analysis & Prevention - Volume 96, November 2016, Pages 46–55
نویسندگان
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