کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5763867 1625603 2017 40 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پویایی فصلی جمعیت های حلزون در کنیا ساحلی: کالیبراسیون مدل و کنترل حلزون
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Advances in Water Resources - Volume 108, October 2017, Pages 397-405
نویسندگان
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