Summer precipitation projections over northwestern South America from CMIP5 models

The SD estimations show considerable differences with respect to SD present values, generally towards precipitation increases. The SD MIROC5, HAdGEM2-AO, and CESM1(CAM5) present significant changes in all the regions for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. So, for the RCP8.5 these models project changes between 12.85% and 18.32% for the NWC region, 6.73% and 10.02% for the SWC region, 6.16% and 14.76% for the NCC region, and 8.31% and 23.11% for the NC region. This last region, that presents the greatest increase (23.11%) for the SD MIROC5 also presents the greatest decrease (− 7.8% under the RCP8.5) for SD MPI-ESM-LR. For the RCP2.6, significant increases are found only for the NWC region with SD HadGEM2-AO (4.5%) and for the NC region with the SD CESM1(CAM5) (8.33%).