The flash flood of the Bisagno Creek on 9th October 2014: An “unfortunate” combination of spatial and temporal scales

- We analyzed the impact of spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall on a flash flood.
- We coupled a probabilistic downscaling system and a distributed hydrological model.
- We aggregated the correct volume of rainfall at different spatial and temporal scales.
- We generated N discharge scenarios.
- We analyzed the effects of different aggregation scales on streamflow prediction.

SummaryOn the 9th October, 2014 a strong event hit the central part of Liguria Region producing disastrous consequences to the city of Genoa where the Bisagno Creek flooded causing one death and lots of damage. The precipitation pattern responsible for the event had peculiar spatial and temporal characteristics that led to an unexpected flash flood. The temporal sequence of rainfall intensities and the particular severity of rainfall showers at small temporal scale, together with the size of the sub-basin hit by the most intense part of the rainfall were the unfortunate concurrent ingredients that led to an “almost perfect” flash flood. The peak flow was estimated to be a 100-200 years order return period.The effects of the spatial and temporal scales of the precipitation pattern were investigated by coupling a rainfall downscaling model with a hydrological model setting up an experiment that follows a probabilistic approach.Supposing that the correct volume of precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales is known, the experiment provided the probability of generating events with similar effects in terms of streamflow.Furthermore, the study gives indications regarding the goodness and reliability of the forecasted rainfall field needed, not only in terms of total rainfall volume, but even in spatial and temporal pattern, to produce the observed ground effects in terms of streamflow.