کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6412900 1629931 2014 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Joint and respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties on reservoir operations
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اثرات مشترک و متفاوتی از عدم اطمینان پیش بینی طولانی مدت و کوتاه مدت در عملیات مخزن
کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی جریان عدم اطمینان پیش بینی طولانی مدت، عدم قطعیت پیش بینی کوتاه مدت، عملیات مخزن مبتنی بر پیش بینی، عدم اطمینان در تصمیم گیری،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی


- A novel statistical method for analysis of forecast-based reservoir operation.
- Partition of joint effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties.
- Diagnosis of respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties.

SummaryForecast uncertainties are a major problem in forecast-based water resource management. This study aims to improve the combined use of long- and short-term streamflow forecasts in reservoir operations by investigating the joint and respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties on decision-making processes. Forecast uncertainties in ensemble streamflow forecasts are explained, and the joint effect is characterized by a matrix of operation decisions. A novel statistical partitioning method is developed to diagnose the respective effects of long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, particularly on an experimental operation of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in China. Given the large regulating capacity of this reservoir, long-term forecast uncertainties inevitably surround its release decisions. When a fixed carried-over storage is used to couple long- and short-term forecasts, an ending storage effect is observed. As a stage approaches its end, the release decision becomes increasingly dependent on the carried-over storage, thereby increasing uncertainty in decision-making as a result of long-term forecast uncertainty. This finding highlights the importance of developing reliable long-term forecasts and selecting a proper carried-over storage to aid the decision-making process. This study proposes a sliding carried-over storage strategy to circumvent the ending storage effect. Results show that, using the same long-term forecast, the proposed strategy significantly alleviates the ending storage effect and reduces uncertainties in the decision-making process. The sliding carried-over storage strategy provides an efficient approach to the combined use of long- and short-term forecasts and improves reservoir operations.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 517, 19 September 2014, Pages 83-94
نویسندگان
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