Fall vegetative cover and summer precipitation predict abundance of wintering grassland birds across the Chihuahuan desert

Local winter abundance of grassland passerines is highly variable throughout the Chihuahuan Desert among years. The objective of this study is to determine if plant biomass in grasslands and precipitation are predictors of bird abundance in space and time through Chihuahuan Desert. We conducted avian surveys in 17 Grassland Priority Conservation Areas (GPCA) in northern Mexico and southwestern United States in the winters of 2007-2011. We used distance sampling on line transects to estimate annual winter bird density in all GPCAs. We used a hierarchical model of distance sampling to estimate the effect of summer precipitation and vegetative cover during the fall on bird density for 10 grassland species. We used the MODIS NDVI at a pixel resolution of 231.5 m as a measure of plant biomass. Grasshopper Sparrow, Baird's Sparrow, Savannah Sparrow, Vesper Sparrow, and Eastern Meadowlark showed a strict positive response to NDVI, while Horned Lark, Sprague's Pipit, Chestnut-collared Longspur and Lark Bunting did not show a strictly-positive response to NDVI. Our results provide a valuable tool for the conservation of declining migratory birds on their wintering grounds by identifying a wildlife-habitat relationship using a remotely-sensed and readily available index of vegetative growth.