Gas production peaks in China: Research and strategic proposals

The peaks of natural gas production are of great significance to the planning of national energy strategy, the coordinated development of natural gas industry chain and the investment decision-making for oil and gas companies. Therefore, based on natural gas geological and development characteristics, the production peaks of conventional gas (including tight gas), CBM and shale gas in China have been systematically analyzed and forecasted using multiple methods. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the cumulative gas production in China will reach 280-330 bcm by 2035 and 330-410 bcm by 2050; second, the conventional gas production peaks will be easily predicable during the forecast period, while the peaks of CBM and shale gas production need to be further forecasted and tracked continuously; third, with the possible breakthrough of gas hydrate exploration and development being considered, gas production in China has a great potential and bright future. In order to achieve a strategic goal of energy transformation and conservation and to guarantee a safe and stable gas supply, a timely profound analysis and study will be necessary on the international political, economic and energy development situation for a global gas strategic layout. In view of this, based on the analysis of domestic natural gas supply and demand situation, the following proposals are put forward: to speed up the domestic tapping and commercial production of those deep-strata, deep-water and unconventional gas resources to consolidate the dominant position of domestic natural gas supply; to attach great importance to a strategic layout of overseas gas resources utilization and to adopt various ways to ensure the security of domestic gas market; to accelerate the evaluation of gas hydrate development in order to enlarge and consolidate the gas resource basis; and to strengthen a dynamic forecast on the peaks of gas production in order to continuously enhance the soft power in international competition.