کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9485164 | 1627979 | 2005 | 41 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Stability and predictability of a virtual plankton ecosystem created with an individual-based model
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کلمات کلیدی
AzoresMesocosmTurbulence - آشفتگی یا توربولانسChaos - آشوبErgodic - ارگودیکEcosystem - اکوسیستم، بومسازگانClimate change - تغییرات آب و هواStability - ثباتAttractor - جاذبهcirculation - جریانIndividual - شخصیModel - مدلbiofeedback - پسخوراند زیستی، بیوفیدبکPlankton - پلانکتونPredict - پیش بینیGreenhouse - گلخانه
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
زمین شناسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
The virtual ecosystem is independent of initial conditions: that is the proof of stability. The legacy of initialisation error decays within three years. The form of the attractor depends on three factors: the specification of the ecosystem model, the resource level (nutrients), and the annual cycle of external forcing. Sensitivity studies spanning the full range of model parameters and resource levels demonstrate that the virtual ecosystem is globally stable. In extreme cases the zooplankton becomes extinct during the simulation; the attractor adjusts gracefully to this new regime, without the emergence of vacillation or a strange attractor that would signal instability. At high resource levels, some of the zooplankton produce two generations per year (as was observed by Marshall and Orr [Marshall, S. M., and Orr, A. P. (1955). The biology of a marine copepod. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd. 188 pp.]; again the attractor adjusts gracefully to the new regime. Ocean circulation does not disrupt the stability of the virtual ecosystem. This is demonstrated by a numerical experiment in which the virtual ecosystem drifts with the mean circulation on a five-year cycle, following a track in the Sargasso Sea that penetrates deep into the zones of annual heating and cooling. The legacy of initialisation error decays within three cycles of the external forcing. Thereafter the ecosystem lies on a five-year geographically-lagrangian attractor. The stability of virtual ecosystems offers useful predictability with a good sign-to-noise ratio.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Progress in Oceanography - Volume 67, Issues 1â2, October 2005, Pages 43-83
Journal: Progress in Oceanography - Volume 67, Issues 1â2, October 2005, Pages 43-83
نویسندگان
John Woods, Angelo Perilli, Wolfgang Barkmann,