کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
976630 1480122 2016 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک برای انتشار شایعات در کلانشهرها بر اساس مدل ICSAR بهبود یافته هشت حالته و مسیرهای فعالیت شخصی پویا
کلمات کلیدی
تحلیل ریسک؛ انتشار شایعه؛ مسیر فعالیت شخصی؛ مدل ICSAR؛ تکذیب دولت؛ رسانه های اجتماعی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات فیزیک ریاضی
چکیده انگلیسی


• We improve the ICSAR model considering personal psychology.
• Risk for rumor propagation is studied based on dynamic personal activity.
• Day 2 usually reaches the outbreak period for rumor propagation.
• Anti-rumor target at public transportation system is very effective.
• Government should invest more resources in the area with low personal resistance.

Social media has developed extremely fast in metropolises in recent years resulting in more and more rumors disturbing our daily lives. Knowing the characteristics of rumor propagation in metropolises can help the government make efficient rumor refutation plans. In this paper, we established a dynamic spatio-temporal comprehensive risk assessment model for rumor propagation based on an improved 8-state ICSAR model (Ignorant, Information Carrier, Information Spreader, Advocate, Removal), large personal activity trajectory data, and governmental rumor refutation (anti-rumor) scenarios. Combining these relevant data with the ‘big’ traffic data on the use of subways, buses, and taxis, we simulated daily oral communications among inhabitants in Beijing. In order to analyze rumor and anti-rumor competition in the actual social network, personal resistance, personal preference, conformity, rumor intensity, government rumor refutation and other influencing factors were considered. Based on the developed risk assessment model, a long-term dynamic rumor propagation simulation for a seven day period was conducted and a comprehensive rumor propagation risk distribution map was obtained. A set of the sensitivity analyses were conducted for different social media and propagation routes. We assessed different anti-rumor coverage ratios and the rumor-spreading thresholds at which the government started to launch anti-rumor actions. The results we obtained provide worthwhile references useful for governmental decision making towards control of social-disrupting rumors.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 451, 1 June 2016, Pages 403–419
نویسندگان
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