Analysis of industrial energy-related CO2 emissions and the reduction potential of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region

Cities are the main carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters in China, and it is important to explore both the characteristics and reduction potential of their CO2 emissions. This paper calculates the industrial energy-related CO2 emissions (IECEs) of 17 cities in China's Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2005 to 2014 and analyses the driving factors of CO2 emissions using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). In addition, this paper predicts the CO2 reduction potential of this group of cities for the period from 2015 to 2020. The results show that (1) during the sample period, industrial CO2 emissions in the studied cities increased by a factor of 1.61. Economic output is the greatest contributor, followed by population size. Energy intensity and energy structure are the two main emission mitigation factors; (2) the driving factors of CO2 emissions in the group of cities exhibit distinct spatial characteristics, indicating that future analyses of cities in this area should have distinctly different foci; and (3) the forecasting results show that under moderate and aggressive scenarios, CO2 emissions in the studied cities can be reduced by 281.59 Mt and 711.90 Mt, respectively, by 2020.