Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria

• The impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria is examined.
• A vector error correction model (VECM) approach is applied to capture simultaneously short run and long run impacts.
• A higher economic development worsens the road safety situation.
• The new traffic rules adopted in 2009 had an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents.

The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970–2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria.